This year is the tenth anniversary for Environment and Development Conference' held in Brazil in 1992 with the proposal of sustainable development strategy. To memorize ‘Brazil+10’, UN is going to hold summit conference of every country in Johannesburg and restate the sustainable development strategy. At this moment, the political circle, economic circle and academic circle of the globe are all paying close attention to the sustainable development process of 21 century. I’d like to present some opinion on the green ecological dwelling issue in our country for your reference.

1. The global ecological environment is worsening
In the latter 50 years of last century, with the end of World War Ⅱ, the economy in developed countries headed by United States developed dramatically; Secondly, the social and economic pattern in the third world also changed greatly. Meanwhile, the global ecological environment was worsening. According to the materials provided by the Annual Conference of AGS in March 2002:
——Population: The population increased in the last 50 years is equal to the total of population in the first 4 million years since the straight walking of human beings. Currently the global population is 6 billion and will reach 9 billion by 2050.
——Water: The water consumption in the world increases 3% every year, which leads to the fall of water level and a shortage of water for 1.1billion population in the world, and unhealthy drinking water for 2.4 billion populations. Presently, 25% of the populations are living in districts with serious water shortage. What’s more, the growth rate of global water usage per person doubles that of the population (the statistic in Beijing’s past 10 years is just the same). With the increase of population, by 2025, this figure will increase 65%.
——Organisms: 25% of the 4600 mammals on the earth, 11% of the 9700 birds and 20% of the 10000 fishes were on the verge of extinction.
——Forest: In the last 10 years, forests of 140 million hectare disappeared. The total area is equal to the total area of France, Germany, Italy, Holland, Austria and Belgium
——Desertization and soil erosion: The erosion of surface earth annually is more than the birth of new earth. The sand storm in Mid-North Asia intensifies every year and Africa loses $7 billion because of erosion every year.
——40% of the regions on the surface of earth are dry regions.
——According to the predictions of relevant experts of AGS, if the greenhouse effect continues and the global climate warming can not be controlled, the icecap in South and North Pole will melt. At that time, due to the change of global climate, the sea level will rise 0.5 meters by 2100. Then Pakistan will lose 17% of its land and thousands of life of Chinese will be affected.
The above-mentioned situation has formed threat to the survival of life
On earth. So the implementation of sustainable development is not only for the future but with practical impact.

2. The development of sustainable strategy
The 1991 UN Environment and Development Conference passed the Agenda for the World in 21 Century, which theme is sustainable development strategy, i.e. the development of the current generation will not affect the survival of the next generation.
Looking back to the environment and development in 20 century will have some enlightenment for the future. In the past century, no matter it is the developed country and developing country, they all based on economic development and adopted discharge standard and target achieving way for environment protection and pollution treatment. Through practices of half century, let’s have a look at the result:
——Economy: The AGS research shows that India loses 10% of GDP annually due to environment destruction (this figure is even more for America). There have been quite a few countries with annual growth rate of GDP lower than annual GDP loss rate due to environment destruction.
——The end discharge standards are getting more and more, more and more rigid and led to the higher and higher environment investment.
——Environmental situation whether in developed country or in developing country is getting worse.
The above situations induce people’s thoughts of survival and development pattern of the current generation. Accordingly, the scholars and experts proposed the following new development pattern which induces the revolutionary change of the development concept in the new century.
——From the demands and reform of mankind on the nature to the harmonious coexistence.
——Restore and repair the destroyed ecological system.
——The strategic changes of development ways: Propose ‘life cycle total cost theory’ and ‘from end to start’.
——Change the available three patterns: Mankind’s life pattern, available production pattern and consumption patter. These three patterns lead to the formation of the environmental problems today.
——The mission of science and technology: Science and technology is double sided sword. The economic development in 20 century came from the progress of technology, but the new tech and new process also produced environmental pollution. The tech in 21 century should start from ‘green’ and end in green.
The new development concepts are mainly manifested in the following two ways:
1) Life Cycle Total Cost
The traditional production way is accounted by making the manufacturing process as the first account, the usage process, however, is another account. Life cycle total cost pattern is accounted based on life cycle of products and merges the two accounts into one. According to the calculation of international experts, the difference between the above two ways is:
Assumption: A+B=C
A: input in the production process of tile goods (consumption of personnel, money and materials)
B: input in the process of goods usage including operation, management and pollution treatment
C: life cycle total cost
Traditional development pattern: 336+340=676
New development pattern: 390+23=413
Therefore, accounting in life cycle total cost pattern will save long-term operation expenses under the condition of limited addition of early-stage cost, making the life cycle total cost decline and obtaining obvious environmental benefit. According the current experiences, if 5% - 10% of early-stage cost addition is applied in the development of new tech and new product, 50%-90% of the long-term operation cost will be saved. The emergence of this new pattern will bring about the revolutionary change in design and development pattern.
2) From end to start
Traditional producing way is to separate production from pollution treatment, with product as the top and discharge standard achievement and pollution treatment as the bottom. The result is more and more pollutant varieties with the innovation of production process. So the discharge standard is stricter and the treatment expense is higher.
The alternative later on will be clean production and zero discharge and based on clean production with reduced pollution till no pollutant. For example, in energy utilization, the past fossil energy is changed into the utilization of green energy. Solar energy, wind energy and other renewable energy sources are paid much attention to. The regeneration, cycling and renewing tech of water is developing quickly and construction energy saving, low-energy building even non-warming dwelling have become hot topics. All these show that the development of human society is undergoing great changes.

3. Green ecological dwelling-implement comprehensive sustainable development strategy
Green ecological dwelling is also called green dwelling, ecological housing and sustainable housing, etc. The core is the implementation of sustainable development strategy. With the quickening process of dwelling marketlization in China, dwelling market competition is fiercer. How to promote the inhabitation quality are a focus and also a common target of both suppliers and demanders. Under such context, developers divert their attention to green ecological dwelling.
1) Evaluate the current green ecological dwelling
Currently, there is different opinion on green ecological dwelling, which is summarized as follows:
——think of it as a real estate marketing instrument and developers make the concept popular;
——think green ecological dwelling is urgent and the future objective;
——consider green ecological dwelling equal to environmental greening focusing on sight enjoyment;
——consider green ecological housing equal to healthy and non-pollutant dwelling;
——think green ecological housing increase cost, favorable to users, environment and society and unfavorable to developers.
All the above opinions are reasonable in certain way. To answer these questions, we have to analyze and illustrate in three aspects of theory, technology and economy.
2) The green ecological dwelling with clear-cut stand
Green ecological dwelling follow the sustainable development strategy of mankind and implements the three themes commonly recognized by international community:
——principled on mankind and care for health and comfort;
——resources saving and re-utilization;
——merge aid harmonize with surroundings.
The three patterns relevant to sustainable development are:
——life pattern of mankind;
——current production pattern;
——consumption pattern.
The three benefits assessing production activities are:
——social benefit;
——environmental benefit;
——economic benefit.
Optimizing and integrating the above ‘three themes’, ‘three patterns’ and ‘three benefits’ to formulate the technological and economic standards for green ecological dwelling is the common issue for people both domestic and aboard.
3) To harmonize three themes and three patterns with three benefits
Three themes-green ecological dwelling Three patterns Three benefits
Principled on mankind and care for health Mankind’s life pattern Social benefit
The saving and renewing of resources Present production pattern Environmental
Harmonize with surroundings Consumption pattern Economic benefit
Guided by sustainable development strategy, we have the following commonsense:
——Understanding to healthy dwelling is relevant to life pattern of people. Currently, returning to natural life pattern is becoming the mainstream.
——Our country is turning all production patterns from resource consumption into resource saving.
——Our country has implemented ecological environment restoration plan.
——With the enhancement of people’s living standard, consumption concept needs guiding.
——Just because the social and human contexts of dwelling are different from those of the other commodities, in dwelling field, if without social and environmental benefit, there will be no economic benefit.

4. The development trend of current international ecological technology
Ecological technology has characteristics of rich content, rapid development and being more systematic. There are the following two trends:
1) From central system to distributed system
Since the end of 20 century, the large system people have been proud of is changing secretly.
2) Restore natural ecology

The following table can show the difference from water saving to ecological recycling of water:
NO. Title Choice Water utilization efficiency %
1 Water supply 1 100
2 Water Conservation 1+2 120
3 Water Reuse
4 Water Reclamation 1+2+3+4 180
5 Water Recycling 1+2+3+4+5 300

5. The concept change of dwelling development
To different consumners, dwelling expectations are different. Dwelling as all investment behavior will play a more and more important role in stimulating consumption and driving economic development. We have to notice that the ratio of real estate in GDP in China is about 8%, while in America it is 18.5%. Therefore, there is really huge development space in real estate. And the precious space should be left for dwelling which could appreciate in the future. That’s the reason why Americans change houses 7 times in life. If the first purchase is to solve living problem, the other 6 times are for appreciation. Therefore,
——Excellent developers can make the land and construction appreciate together.
——Wise purchasers call choose dwelling that can appreciate.
The developers should seek the best balance point between initial investment and long-term appreciation.
——The engineers will calculate the benefit relationship between technology and product investment increase and long-term operation maintenance expense savings.

Chinese commercial dwelling market has a history of about 10 years and is in a critical period, the predictions on future dwelling market are different too. Some are pessimistic, thinking that 2002 is a year of disaster, and the house price will fall; some think that the real estate is facing the third big development and we should grasp opportunity. Whatever it is, the Chinese real estate industry has entered a rational development stage. Competition in real estate is enhanced from project competition to capability competition among enterprises, especially in production. Only after a solidifying process can the real estate industry of China welcome another springtime.